Odds Are Long for College Athletic Scholarships
January 31st, 2010It’s parental nature, for most of us, to hope for positive scenarios when it comes to our children and their college education.
So it’s only natural, therefore, for those of us who are parents of would-be college athletes, to dream they can beat the odds and win a college scholarship.
Do you happen to know just how long those odds are?
I’ve done some research and they are very long. While stats are not available for every sport, the NCAA Web site (www.ncaa.org) has an interesting page that shows the odds of a high school athlete getting a college scholarship in men’s and women’s basketball, football, baseball, football, men’s ice hockey and men’s soccer. The same page also gives the odds of that same high school athlete being drafted as a pro in each of those sports.
The challenge is daunting to say the least. So, even if you are convinced that your child is the next Drew Brees, or the next Lisa Leslie, I strongly recommend a plan B.
I happen to have two sons who are playing high school ice hockey, where the odds of a college scholarship, and subsequent pro career, are the best that I’ve seen. However, my wife and I have asked our sons: have you ever heard of a NHL player from the District of Columbia (where they play) or Virginia (where we live)? (They haven’t, because there has never been one from either place.)
So what are those ice hockey stats? Partly because high school participation rates are so low compared to other sports, one in nine of boy high school hockey players, or 11%, go on to play in college and 0.31%, continue to play in the pros.
From there the odds for every other sport (where stats are available) get much longer.
Football, which has the most widespread participation of any high school sport, is in the middle of the pack odds-wise in terms of the chances of attaining a college scholarship. One in 17 high school football players, or 5.8%, go on to earn a college scholarship and one in 1,200 of those same high school gridiron greats make it to the NFL.
Another way to look at it: there are eleven players on each side in a football game and most players these days specialize in offense or defense. Scan the local paper on a Saturday morning, and count 52 game scores from contests played under the Friday night lights. Out of all of the starters in all of those games, 52 games X 22 players, the odds are that exactly one of those young men will make it the NFL – the real version that is, though Madden 2010 is another matter.
The odds of a high school soccer player attaining a scholarship are almost identical to football, as are the odds of such a youngster, no matter how talented, making it in the MLS.
Baseball is slightly better when it comes to odds of attaining a college scholarship – one in 17, or 6.4%, will do so – but the chances of getting drafted to the pros is better than either football or soccer, with a whopping one in 225, or 0.44%, being chosen. However, there are many more draftees in baseball – and more levels of “professional” – than any other sport, so the odds of actually making it to the MLB are still highly stacked against any youngster.
And speaking of odds, the sport of basketball is the toughest of all, not only for boys and their chances of a college scholarship, but also for girls, though it must be noted that this sport is the only one where statistics for female athletes are readily available.
Of all the girls who participate in high school basketball, only 3.4%, attain a college basketball scholarship and only one in 5000, or 0.02%, eventually make it to the WNBA.
The odds of a male basketball player making it to college hoops or the pros are even longer. Only 3.1% go on from high school to play in the college game and, of all the high school basketball players in the U.S., only one in 3300, or 0.03%, make it to the NBA. Picturing that figure in team terms, only one fortunate and talented young man out of every seven high school starting fives will receive a college basketball scholarship. And only one incredibly gifted and determined young man out of every 660 starting fives will play in the pros.
So, as Super Bowl Sunday approaches, and America’s focus turns to sports, enjoy yourself watching the game and encourage the young people in your family to pursue their athletic dreams. As they do so, however, temper your own enthusiasm for how far such dreams may take your own children, as the odds are much greater that Super Bowls down the road will find them on the couch battling you for the remote, as opposed to on the field battling for victory.
Before you settle down on that couch, here are some stories of interest from Inside Higher Ed, the leading online publication covering the world of colleges and universities. As per our weekly custom, these several stories below follow the trends and developments in higher education that IHE editors and I think will be of interest to parents. Read, learn and enjoy yourself, then forward this column to friends who you think may also be interested in empowering themselves to best support their children on the path to and through college.





