Thursday, July 3, 2008
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ODDS ARE LONG FOR COLLEGE ATHLETIC SCHOLARSHIPS
It's human nature, for most people, to look for the positive outcome in any given situation.
And it's parental nature, for most of us, to look and hope for positive, upbeat scenarios when it comes to our children and their college education.
So it is only natural, therefore, for those of us who are parents of would-be college athletes, to think that they can beat the odds and win a college scholarship.
Do you happen to know just how long those odds are?
I've done some research and they are very long. While stats are not easily available for every sport, the NCAA Web site has an interesting page that provides the odds of a high school athlete getting a college scholarship in men's and women's basketball, baseball, football, men's ice hockey and men's soccer. The same page also provides the odds of that same high school athlete being drafted as a pro in each of those sports.
The challenge is daunting to say the least so, even if you are convinced that your child is the next Gretzky, or the next Lisa Leslie, I would strongly recommend a plan B.
I happen to have a son who is playing high school ice hockey, where the odds of a college scholarship, and subsequent pro career, are actually the best that I've seen. However, my wife and I have often asked our son: have you ever heard of a NHL player from the District of Columbia (where he plays) or Virginia (where we live)? (He hasn't, because there has never been one from either place.)
So what are those ice hockey stats? Partly because high school participation rates are so low compared to other sports, one in eight of boy high school hockey players, or 12.9%, go on to play in college and one in 250, or 0.4%, continue to play in the pros.
From there the odds for every other sport (where stats are available) get progressively longer.
Football, believe it or not, is the next "easiest" sport in terms of attaining a college scholarship. This is a stat, I suppose, to inspire your sons, including ours, during those grueling two-a-days in the August heat. One in 17 high school football players, or 5.8%, go on to earn a college scholarship and one in 1,100 of those same high school gridiron greats make it to the NFL.
Another way to look at it: there are eleven players on each side in a football game and most players these days specialize in offense or defense. Scan the local paper on a Saturday morning, and count 50 game scores from contest played under the Friday night lights. Out of all of the starters in all of those games, 50 X 22 players, the odds are that exactly one of those young men will make it the NFL - the real version that is, though Madden 2007 is another matter.
The odds of a high school soccer player attaining a scholarship are almost identical to football, as are the odds of such a youngster, no matter how talented, making it in the MLS.
Baseball is slightly tougher in terms of attaining a college scholarship - one in 19, or 5.6%, can do so - but the chances of getting drafted to the pros is better than either football or soccer, with a whopping one in 200, or 0.5%, being chosen. However, there are many more draftees in baseball than in any other sport, so the odds of actually making it to the MLB are still stacked against any youngster.
And speaking of odds, the sport of basketball is the toughest of all, not only for boys and their chances of a college scholarship, but also for girls, though it must be noted that this sport is the only one where statistics for female athletes are readily available.
Of all the girls who participate in high school basketball, only one in 34, or 3.1%, attain a college basketball scholarship and only one in 5000, or 0.02%, eventually make it to the WNBA.
The odds of a male basketball player making it to college hoops or the pros are even longer. Only one in 35, or 2.9%, goes on from high school to play in the college game and, of all the high school basketball players in the U.S., only one in 3300, or 0.03%, make it to the NBA. Picturing that figure in team terms, only one fortunate and talented young man out of every seven high school starting fives will receive a college basketball scholarship. And only one incredibly gifted and determined young man out of every 660 starting fives will play in the pros.
So, as Super Bowl Sunday approaches, and America's focus turns to sports, enjoy yourself watching the game and encourage the young people in your family to pursue their athletic dreams. As they do so, however, temper your own enthusiasm for how far such dreams may take your own children, as the odds are much greater that Super Bowls down the road will find them on the couch battling you for the remote, as opposed to on the field battling for victory.
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